Articles on investing and capital management, with a quantitative focus.


#bigpicture - Big picture thoughts
#prp - Permanent Risk Parity (how I invest)
#xiutop - Top stocks of XIU index
#bullsignals - Algorithm-driven market timing
#growth - My portfolio of growth stocks


Investing With Crash Protection

I have two distinct strategies for investing while also having some protection from crashes and extreme volatility. One is Bullsignals... #bigpicture


Reflecting on BullSignals During Covid

I continue to run my algorithm-based trend following strategy, to a limited extent. I keep this in a separate account... #bullsignals


Growth Portfolio Annual Update

My Growth portfolio underperformed the TSX over the last year. Several holdings no longer meet my screening criteria and have been replaced... #growth


Why I chose XIU and ZSP

Many people have asked why I use XIU and ZSP for the equity components in my portfolio, as opposed to VEQT or XAW... #prp


Buying Bonds in PRP

When adding new money to my portfolio, I look at my current asset weights to find out where I am underweight. Here's how my portfolio looked... #prp


Time To Invest In Bitcoin?

No. I already committed myself to a specific portfolio strategy, based on extensive research and modelling. My portfolio is based on... #bigpicture


Five Years of PRP

I started using this asset allocation on 2016-03-22, and today I am marking the 5 year anniversary. Originally, I was using the Permanent Portfolio... #prp


Adding back into PRP

I withdrew some of my PRP back in August, and made a commitment to reinvest the money once it was possible to do so... #prp


PRP Performance

The PRP gained 11.7% in 2020, the second highest annual return in the 25 year history... #prp


Performance of Growth Portfolio

This is the 4 year anniversary of my Growth portfolio, and I'm going to review the performance of my stock picks versus the benchmark... #growth


Stocks Are Always Scary

COVID-19 certainly qualifies as a true catastrophe, but it won't be the last stock market disaster. As I pointed out a year ago... #bigpicture


Adding back into PRP

Earlier, I described a withdrawal from PRP where I sold some of my portfolio during a strong rally in stocks and gold... #prp


US Version of PRP

In this post, I will present a U.S. version of the PRP. It's essentially the same as the #prp asset allocation I use myself, except for... #prp


Indexing is Not Passive

Index investing has become more popular in recent years. For example, someone can hold an index fund that tracks the S&P 500 index ... #bigpicture


Withdrew from PRP

I have one investment account which needs to be liquidated before moving elsewhere. This is a "forced selling" scenario... #prp


What Happens Next?

Market analysts and commentators love to make appearances in the media and share their predictions about what will happen next. Often, ... #bigpicture


Mid Year Report Card

I use a number of different investment strategies, each covered in a different section of this web site. The "top level" asset allocation... #bigpicture


Beware the high premium on MNT

My allocation to gold is currently spread across several different ETFs, as I wrote about earlier... #prp


Growth Portfolio Annual Update

My Growth portfolio outperformed the TSX in this time period. Several holdings no longer meet my screening criteria and have been replaced... #growth


Note on MNT for gold exposure

My PRP model portfolio has 20% weight in gold bullion, which I show as MNT in the model portfolio. MNT is nice because... #prp


Zoom Out to 1 Year

Lately, daily volatility in markets has been extreme. To see things more clearly, I think it helps to "zoom out" and look at the longer term... #bigpicture


PRP Response to Market Crash

Today saw historic moves in the stock market. The S&P 500 declined 7.6% and Canada's TSX fell an incredible 10.3%... #prp


Mild TSX Correction So Far

Would it surprise you to hear that this has been a mild stock correction so far? For Canada's benchmark index, this current selloff... #bigpicture


COVID-19 and Stocks

Posting an article like this one is risky, because at some point in the future, the outcome of COVID-19 will be known... #bigpicture

2020-01-11 Update

At year end, I evaluted the portfolio and went through the update methodology. Remember that this is not a buy-and-hold... #xiutop


PRP Performance

The PRP gained 13.3% in 2019, the largest annual return in the 24 year history. This was an unusually strong year... #prp


Scaling down my market timing

Although my BullSignals market timing has given reasonable results for a few years, I've decided to scale down... #bullsignals


Growth Portfolio 6 Month Update

My Growth portfolio slightly outperformed the TSX in this time period. Performance has been strong since inception 3 years ago... #growth


Trouble Investing New Money

Are you having trouble investing new money? Are concerns about an overvalued stock market preventing you from making purchases?... #bigpicture


I am not a Tortoise

According to Wikipedia, most tortoise species can live to around 100 years, with some living over 150 years... #bigpicture


Backtesting with the Portfolio Visualizer

One of my favourite investment-related web sites is the Portfolio Visualizer, a collection of analysis tools that can be used to study the behaviour... #bigpicture


Buy Signal

My market timing algorithm gave a buy signal today, September 6. After two weeks in cash, this resumes a long position in stocks. #bullsignals

2019-08-25 methodology

The method uses individual stocks to approximate the TSX 60 index by holding the largest weight (largest market cap)... #xiutop


Sell Signal

My market timing algorithm gave a sell signal today, August 21. This gives a +6.4% total return in XIU and +9.4% total return in SPY.... #bullsignals


Choosing My Asset Allocation

I've described some details of risk parity, but I should explain how I arrived at my PRP asset allocation. There is no ideal single asset allocation... #bigpicture


Derivation of a Risk Parity Portfolio

After learning about the risk parity concept, I tried deriving my own portfolio using three uncorrelated assets that I like... #prp


What is Risk?

As far as I know, there is no universally accepted definition of risk for investment modelling. Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), introduced by Markowitz... #prp


I don't know what the market will do

I don't know how the economy will behave, if we'll get runaway inflation, and if stocks will continue to do well. #bigpicture


Risk Parity Doesn't Require Leverage

There are many variants of risk parity. Some risk parity hedge funds use leverage. Others dynamically adjust weights... #prp


Risk Parity - Basics

Harry Markowitz, recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics, called diversification 'the only free lunch in finance'... #prp


Growth Portfolio 6 Month Update

My growth portfolio outperformed the TSX by several percent in this time period, continuing to show strong performance since inception... #growth


BullSignals Basics

My algorithm evaluates stock market strength and tries to detect periods of high risk... #bullsignals


Timing the market is probably a bad idea

I'm aware that it's generally a bad idea to try "market timing". Trading in and out of the market usually gives worse performance... #bullsignals


Investment goals

Here, I describe my own investment goals to provide context for the articles I write... #bigpicture


We are shaped by our experiences

Investing can mean different things to different people, and not everyone has the same priorities... #bigpicture